The Informativeness of Frequency-Report Scoring Rules
Manuscript, simulations, tests, and replication code for a project on belief elicitation with frequency reports, inverse belief regions, and finite-sample belief and mean bounds.
Quantitative Scientist
Jesper Armouti-Hansen
Economics PhD applying statistical modelling, econometrics, and machine learning evaluation to structured data.
I am a quantitative scientist with a background in economics and a PhD from the University of Cologne. In my current role, I work with machine learning models in an operational context, focusing on how model outputs can be used reliably in practice — understanding confidence levels, defining thresholds, and supporting decisions on when results can be used directly and when human review is required.
My academic research covers theoretical and empirical topics in microeconomics, with a focus on behavioral economics, personnel economics, organizational economics, formal modelling, and careful interpretation of results.
Selected work
Projects
RAG Search Engine
Hybrid movie-search system combining BM25, sentence-transformer embeddings, reciprocal rank fusion, CLIP image search, query enhancement, reranking, RAG generation, caching, and retrieval evaluation.
CitiBike Demand, Risk, and Net Flow Analysis
CitiBike NYC study combining trip and collision data to estimate demand, station-level net flow, and risk per trip for user warnings, insurance pricing, and operational safety decisions.
Economic Theories and Machine Learning
Analysis code connected to research on evaluating economic theories using machine learning benchmarks.
Research
Selected publications
Efficiency Wages with Motivated Agents
Games and Economic Behavior, 145, pp. 66-83
Abstract
Many jobs serve a social purpose beyond profit maximization. This paper uses a modified principal-agent gift-exchange game with positive externality to study how workers' prosocial motivation interacts with efficiency wages in stimulating effort. The results show that prosocial motivation and efficiency wages are independent in stimulating effort, while principals offer higher wages in the prosocial treatment because they underestimate reciprocity in the standard gift-exchange environment.
Managing Anticipation and Reference-Dependent Choice
Journal of Mathematical Economics, 112, 102988
Abstract
The paper develops a model of reference-dependent choice in which the reference point may be any convex combination of possible outcomes under a consumption lottery. It introduces solution concepts, characterizes them on choice data, and identifies the model's parameters.
Optimal Contracting with Endogenous Project Mission
Journal of the European Economic Association, 18(5), pp. 2647-2676
Abstract
The paper studies how organizations can choose a project mission to attract, incentivize, and screen workers. It analyzes how contractual environments shape the optimal distance between the organization's preferred mission and the agents' preferred mission.
Research interests
Behavioral and organizational economics
My academic work studies incentives, motivation, social preferences, reference-dependent choice, and organizational design. Current projects evaluate the predictive completeness of social preference theories using machine learning benchmarks, and study frequency-report scoring rules for belief elicitation by asking what latent beliefs can be inferred from discrete count reports under different scoring-rule designs.
Teaching
Courses and supervision
- Seminar on Current Topics in Microeconomics, undergraduate lecturer, since 2025
- Research Module on Applied Microeconomics and Management, graduate lecturer, 2022-2025
- Empirical Evaluation of Management Practices, graduate lecturer and tutor, 2019-2022
- Economics of Incentives in Organisations, graduate tutor, 2016 and 2020-2022
- Behavioral Management Science, undergraduate lecturer and tutor, 2017-2020
- Strategic Human Resource Management, graduate tutor, 2016-2019
- Seminar on Human Resource Management, graduate lecturer, 2017-2018
Supervised more than 60 bachelor and master theses.
Contact
Get in touch
For professional, research, or project-related inquiries, the easiest way to reach me is by email.